Preseason Rankings
Mountain West
2019-20


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
34 Utah St. 58.2%   11   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 6 14 - 4 +11.5      +6.6 28 +4.9 47 69.6 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
77 San Diego St. 24.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 9 11 - 7 +6.8      +2.1 111 +4.7 54 67.5 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
90 Boise St. 16.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 10 11 - 7 +5.3      +3.5 79 +1.7 120 64.8 286 0.0 1 0.0 1
92 New Mexico 15.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 7 +5.0      +5.7 42 -0.7 188 79.4 17 0.0 1 0.0 1
95 Nevada 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 11 11 - 7 +4.5      +2.6 101 +1.9 114 73.0 77 0.0 1 0.0 1
118 Fresno St. 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 +3.2      +0.2 166 +3.0 90 69.2 164 0.0 1 0.0 1
146 UNLV 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 10 +1.0      +1.3 132 -0.3 172 68.6 180 0.0 1 0.0 1
170 Air Force 2.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -0.5      -0.1 176 -0.5 183 66.2 247 0.0 1 0.0 1
179 Colorado St. 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 7 - 11 -1.5      +0.5 154 -2.0 227 68.0 204 0.0 1 0.0 1
275 Wyoming 0.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 20 4 - 14 -6.4      -4.7 305 -1.6 212 70.7 125 0.0 1 0.0 1
330 San Jose St. 0.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 5 - 24 3 - 15 -11.1      -5.8 320 -5.3 320 72.7 81 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Utah St. 2.0 55.0 20.7 10.9 5.9 3.6 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 3.9 17.0 17.8 15.7 14.0 11.2 9.4 6.9 4.2 2.7 1.0 0.2
Boise St. 4.2 12.3 15.0 15.9 14.9 12.5 10.6 8.0 5.9 3.5 1.2 0.3
New Mexico 4.2 13.2 16.3 15.8 13.8 12.3 10.1 8.1 5.2 3.5 1.3 0.4
Nevada 4.3 11.0 15.9 16.1 14.7 12.4 10.2 8.1 6.0 3.7 1.5 0.3
Fresno St. 5.0 7.3 11.0 13.5 13.5 13.5 12.4 11.0 8.6 6.1 2.4 0.7
UNLV 6.3 2.8 5.3 7.1 9.3 10.9 13.8 14.6 15.0 13.1 6.1 2.1
Air Force 6.7 1.9 4.0 5.9 8.1 10.7 12.8 14.9 16.3 14.2 8.4 2.9
Colorado St. 7.1 1.2 2.9 4.7 7.0 9.3 12.0 14.9 16.3 17.5 10.1 4.1
Wyoming 9.2 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.9 6.7 11.0 18.6 33.7 21.1
San Jose St. 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.4 11.0 28.3 52.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah St. 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 8.1 11.6 14.4 16.8 16.7 13.4 6.8
San Diego St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 2.9 4.2 6.5 8.7 10.7 12.2 12.7 11.8 10.7 8.0 5.3 2.7 0.7
Boise St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 3.8 5.5 7.7 9.9 11.5 13.2 12.7 11.2 8.9 5.8 3.8 1.6 0.4
New Mexico 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.3 5.5 7.2 9.9 11.8 12.4 12.0 11.2 9.4 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.6
Nevada 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.0 10.0 11.0 12.8 12.7 11.3 9.0 6.2 3.5 1.6 0.3
Fresno St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.7 8.1 10.3 11.5 12.2 12.0 10.8 9.1 6.3 4.0 1.9 0.7 0.2
UNLV 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 5.6 8.3 10.7 11.9 12.2 12.2 10.8 8.1 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
Air Force 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.8 9.5 11.3 12.7 13.1 11.5 9.5 7.3 5.1 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.1 2.7 5.4 8.1 10.9 12.6 12.5 12.9 10.4 8.3 6.4 3.8 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 4 - 14 4.3 9.9 14.5 15.4 14.4 12.8 9.9 7.4 4.8 3.0 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 15 13.8 21.6 21.3 16.3 11.5 6.7 4.3 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 55.0% 42.3 10.5 1.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 17.0% 10.7 4.9 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 12.3% 7.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 13.2% 7.8 4.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 11.0% 6.3 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 7.3% 4.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Air Force 1.9% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 58.2% 39.0% 19.3% 11   1.2 2.0 2.7 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 5.0 6.6 10.5 8.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 41.8 31.6%
San Diego St. 24.4% 15.3% 9.2% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.7 2.5 5.9 6.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 75.6 10.8%
Boise St. 16.6% 11.3% 5.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 3.9 4.6 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 83.4 6.0%
New Mexico 15.7% 10.5% 5.2% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 3.5 4.4 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 84.3 5.8%
Nevada 14.0% 9.5% 4.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.4 3.1 4.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 86.0 5.0%
Fresno St. 8.8% 6.7% 2.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.7 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 91.2 2.2%
UNLV 4.8% 3.7% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 95.2 1.1%
Air Force 2.6% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 97.4 0.3%
Colorado St. 1.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 98.1 0.3%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 58.2% 5.7% 55.7% 31.4% 13.6% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 0.4%
San Diego St. 24.4% 4.2% 22.4% 8.9% 2.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 16.6% 2.8% 15.2% 5.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 15.7% 2.6% 14.5% 5.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 14.0% 2.4% 12.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 8.8% 1.2% 8.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 4.8% 0.5% 4.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 2.6% 0.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 58.7 35.7 5.2 0.4 0.0
1st Round 99.9% 1.4 0.1 65.9 30.7 3.2 0.2
2nd Round 51.9% 0.6 48.1 44.8 6.8 0.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 21.2% 0.2 78.8 20.3 0.8 0.0
Elite Eight 8.2% 0.1 91.8 8.1 0.2
Final Four 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.3 0.0
Final Game 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5